2027 Early Forecast: Tinubu Leads With 20 States, Atiku 9, Obi 8 Plus FCT — PIG
As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 presidential election, an early political forecast has placed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi.
The Political Intelligence Group, PIG, of Politico.ng, Lagos, in its assessment of the country’s current political configuration, projects that Tinubu would win 20 states if the presidential election were held under prevailing circumstances.
Atiku is projected to win nine states, while Obi is expected to secure eight states, in addition to the Federal Capital Territory, FCT.
PIG, however, cautioned that the projection represents a snapshot of the current political landscape and should not be regarded as a prediction of the eventual outcome.
The group noted that Nigeria’s political environment remained fluid and could change significantly before voters go to the polls.
“If the election were held today, based on the political realities and alignments currently on the ground, the APC and President Tinubu would have the advantage,” PIG stated. “However, this is a projection of the current situation, not a declaration of the eventual result. A lot can happen between now and 2027.”
Tinubu projected to win 20 states
The forecast gives Tinubu a strong position across the South-West, with the president projected to win all six states in the region. His projected dominance reflects his longstanding political influence in the South-West, particularly Lagos, where he built much of his political structure before becoming president.
The projection also places Kano, one of Nigeria’s most populous states and a major electoral battleground, in the president’s column.
“Tinubu’s strength, as projected, goes beyond the South-West. His ability to secure states outside his traditional stronghold is an indication of the breadth of the APC’s current political structure,” the group said.
PIG said the president’s prospects in 2027 could depend heavily on how Nigerians assess his administration. Economic hardship, inflation, unemployment, insecurity and cost of living are expected to feature prominently.
“The economy remains the biggest variable in this election. If economic conditions improve significantly, it could work in favour of the incumbent. If hardship persists, the opposition will have a powerful campaign issue,” it observed.
Atiku projected to win nine states
For Atiku, PIG projects victories in nine states, with much of his strength concentrated in the northern part of the country. The former vice president is expected to retain significant support in parts of the North-West and North-East, with Kaduna among the states projected to fall into his column.
“Atiku remains a formidable northern political force, but the 2027 contest will require more than regional strength. His ability to make significant inroads into the South will be critical to his prospects,” the group said.
Obi projected to win eight states, FCT
Obi is projected to win eight states, with the FCT also expected to fall into his column. Edo is among the states projected to go to the Labour Party candidate.
The forecast reflects the political base Obi built during the 2023 presidential election, particularly among younger voters and in several southern states.
“Obi’s support remains significant, particularly among voters demanding political change and a different style of governance. The question is whether that support can be expanded geographically and translated into sufficient state-by-state victories,” PIG stated.
Alliances could alter projection
PIG identified political realignment as one of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the 2027 election, noting that opposition parties have continued to explore possible alliances aimed at challenging the ruling APC.
“Alliances, defections, candidates, running mates and the performance of the economy can all alter today’s projection,” PIG noted.
The group stressed that the figures — Tinubu 20 states, Atiku nine and Obi eight, plus FCT to Obi — should not be mistaken for an election result.
“Our projection should be understood as a political snapshot. It reflects the balance of forces as they currently exist. It does not mean the election has already been won or lost,” the group said.
For Tinubu, the immediate challenge will be to convert incumbency and party structure into sustained national support. For Atiku, the task will be to preserve his northern base while expanding into other regions. For Obi, the challenge will be to transform the momentum of 2023 into a broader national coalition.
