2027 Presidency: Tinubu Edges Obi, Atiku In Oxford-Metro Poll With 35.41% As Regional Map Shifts From 2023

President Bola Tinubu has finished ahead of Peter Obi in the Oxford-Metro Analytics National Trust Poll, which closed on September 7.

The poll recorded 69,110 total approved responses. Tinubu won with 24,469 responses, representing 35.41%, while Obi placed second with 23,402 responses, representing 33.86%. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, accounting for 26.67%.

The margin between Tinubu and Obi was just 1,067 responses.

According to the poll’s geographical spread, the picture is strikingly different from the 2023 presidential election. Tinubu, who won 12 states in 2023, led in 20 states and the FCT in this survey. Obi and Atiku each recorded the highest response counts in eight states apiece.

At the zonal level, Tinubu led in the South-West with 10,968 responses (43.53%), North-West with 4,129 responses (43.10%) and North-Central with 6,370 responses (36.97%).

Obi’s clearest lead came from the South-East where he polled 5,796 responses (63.97%) and also led the South-South with 2,389 responses (41.48%). Atiku dominated the North-East with 1,235 responses (55.46%).

Notable northern states that backed Atiku in 2023 — including Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe — showed Tinubu leading in this poll. He also led in Kano, where NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso won in 2023.

The poll highlighted narrow margins in key battlegrounds. In the FCT, Tinubu secured 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278 and Atiku’s 3,954. In Rivers, Tinubu polled 975 against Obi’s 892 — an 83-response gap. In Kogi, only 110 responses were recorded, with Tinubu 39, Atiku 38 and Obi 33.

Beyond the top three, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, Seyi Makinde got 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan received 284.

Another 638 participants chose “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet,” while 204 were undecided and 122 selected “Other Candidate.”

The poll also noted significant concentration, with Lagos and the FCT together accounting for 54.44% of all responses. The final dataset included 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from regional tallies.