2027: Wherever Atiku Is First, Tinubu Will Be Second; Wherever Obi Is First, Tinubu Will Be Second — Bulama Bukarti Says Tinubu Will Benefit From Three-Way Race

A UK-based Nigerian lawyer, Bulama Bukarti, has said President Bola Tinubu will be the biggest beneficiary of a three-way presidential race in 2027, because wherever Atiku Abubakar comes first, Tinubu will come second, and wherever Peter Obi comes first, Tinubu will also come second, giving him the crucial 25 percent spread needed to win.

Bukarti stated this during the weekly program Fashin Baki on his platform, which had veteran journalist Jaafar Jaafar as guest.

According to the lawyer, the opposition failed to unite ahead of the 2027 presidential election because their politics is not driven by ideology but by personal interest.

He argued that apart from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, none of the presidential candidates and their running mates would reject an offer to serve as Vice President to President Tinubu on grounds of principle.

“Apart from Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, because I think he wouldn’t do what I am about to tell you. If you remove Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, among all the presidential candidates and their running mates, who do you think Tinubu would call and say ‘come and be my Vice President’ and the person would say ‘Ah ah, you are not a good person, or your government hasn’t protected the poor, so I won’t be your Vice President’?” Bukarti asked.

“Nobody, honestly,” Jaafar responded.

“So, you see, it’s not a matter of ideology. It’s not about ideology, that’s why they failed to unite,” Bukarti said.

He argued that if the opposition were truly united by ideology, they would have rallied around the candidate with the best chance of defeating Tinubu, which he identified as Atiku Abubakar.

“For example, all opposition members — if you are truly in opposition, you know Atiku Abubakar has better chances than you and has more capacity to give Tinubu a hard time. But since Atiku won’t give you what you want, or because you are not Atiku, or due to a different calculation, you decide that you won’t support Atiku and instead go grab your own party platform and stand on your own,” he said.
Bukarti then gave a breakdown of how a three-way contest between Tinubu, Atiku and Peter Obi would likely play out, saying projections show Tinubu would win most of Yoruba land, Peter Obi would win most of Igbo land, and Atiku Abubakar would win most of the North.

The critical factor, he noted, would be the constitutional requirement of 25% in at least two-thirds of the states.

“Where the requirement for 25% comes in at the end is: wherever Atiku comes first, Tinubu will come second. Wherever Peter Obi comes first, Tinubu will come second,” Bukarti explained.

“So you see, if you make a mistake, he will gather his own states, and then gather second-place finishes across where you all accumulated votes… and in 2019, there were Northern states that he won, and it’s possible he might win them again now,” he added.

Jaafar noted that the 25% spread is being overlooked as everyone focuses only on popular votes, describing it as “highly critical.”

Bukarti agreed, stressing that popular votes alone cannot win the presidency.
“It’s critical, it’s critical. For instance, even if Peter Obi gets 23 million votes, he won’t win because he won’t achieve the required 25% spread. Even if he has the highest number of votes, it would lead to a rerun election; he wouldn’t win outright,” he said.

The lawyer concluded that the best chance for the opposition to defeat Tinubu was to unite, and if they go into the election divided, they should not blame ordinary Nigerians.

“I think what you are showing is the primary hurdle for Tinubu or the opposition. Their best chance was to unite. If they go divided, then they shouldn’t turn around and blame the ordinary citizens,” Bukarti said.

Jaafar concurred: “They shouldn’t insult or blame the poor; it is their fault, not the poor’s fault.”