The Economist: Tinubu “Universally Disliked” But May Still Win 2027 Because Opposition Is Divided, Turnout Is Low And Incumbency Is Powerful

Despite growing public discontent over insecurity, economic hardship and the performance of government, President Bola Tinubu may still be re-elected in the 2027 presidential election, according to London-based The Economist Magazine.

The magazine made the projection in an article titled, ‘Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway.

In the article, The Economist noted that Tinubu appeared relatively unconcerned about his re-election prospects despite the challenges confronting the country. It further stated that the President returned from Paris on September 29, after a month-long stay in Europe, having previously extended what was described as his “working holiday” by several days.

“On the face of it, Mr. Tinubu’s cool is surprising,” the publication stated, pointing to Nigeria’s worsening security situation and economic pressures. “Nigeria is suffering a worsening security crisis, with people kidnapped and killed by bandits or insurgents on a near-daily basis.”

The Economist also noted that while Tinubu’s economic reforms had been “lauded by investors”, they had yet to translate into improved living conditions for many Nigerians. “His economic reforms, though lauded by investors, have yet to make life better for most of the country’s 240m people,” it stated.

According to the magazine, the situation appeared even more politically challenging because some of Tinubu’s potential challengers were more popular in parts of northern Nigeria, particularly areas experiencing severe insecurity and economic deprivation. It, however, argued that the President’s apparent confidence was not necessarily a reflection of widespread satisfaction with his administration. “That he is not says less about him and more about Nigeria’s complicated electoral dynamics,” The Economist stated.

The publication used Borno State to illustrate the challenges facing the Tinubu administration, describing the state as being in the grip of an insurgency that has lasted for two decades. It argued that jihadist factions were fighting the government and one another, while making money through kidnapping, extortion and the looting of farmers. According to the publication, the violence had damaged the local economy, leaving young people without jobs and traders without customers.

It quoted a 27-year-old resident of Maiduguri as saying he was forced to travel to neighbouring Chad to sell grain because residents could no longer afford to buy it. The resident reportedly said young people “pack all their things and leave Borno state” for Chad, Cameroon or Ghana, “because if you sit down here, there is no food in this country.”

The Economist stated that the President’s re-election campaign was centred on economic reforms, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, which it said had brought “a degree of stability to Nigeria”. It listed falling inflation, increased government revenue and improving investment as some of the developments associated with the reforms. However, it stated that the impact of the reforms had been more difficult for vulnerable communities in Borno, where a poor harvest, cuts in aid and higher energy costs had compounded economic difficulties.

The publication reported that annual inflation in August remained around 15 per cent, while food inflation was closer to 20 per cent. According to the publication, the economic and security situation had affected Tinubu’s standing in northern Nigeria, where the APC had traditionally performed strongly. It recalled that Tinubu won 54 per cent of the vote in Borno State in the 2023 presidential election. However, citing recent polling by SBM Intelligence, the publication said Tinubu was now less popular in Borno than Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar. It said some residents of Maiduguri were prepared to “fight back” at the ballot box in January.

Nevertheless, The Economist argued that dissatisfaction with the President might not by itself be sufficient to remove him from office. “Incumbents, with access to the ruling-party machinery and plentiful cash to dole out goodies, have tended to have an advantage in recent Nigerian elections,” it stated.

It also identified the fragmentation of the opposition as a factor. It noted that Obi and Atiku had not formed a joint ticket, arguing that this could prevent opposition votes from being consolidated behind a single candidate. Quoting Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks, it said: “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.” The magazine added that in Maiduguri, some voters reportedly said they did not even know who else was on the ballot apart from Tinubu.

Religion was another factor identified by the publication. It noted that Tinubu and his vice-presidential candidate, Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State, are both Muslims, as are most people in northern Nigeria. The publication quoted Cheta Nwanze, head of SBM Intelligence, as saying: “The fact that the president has stuck with the Muslim-Muslim ticket resonates with quite a number of people.” According to The Economist, religious identity could also influence voters considering Obi, a Catholic. “Even voters who like Mr. Obi may rule him out because he is a Catholic; the fact that he has a Muslim running-mate may not be enough,” it stated.

The publication also identified what it described as political cynicism among some voters as perhaps the most significant factor. It argued that some voters in northern communities might not judge Tinubu’s administration solely on its record because of their long experience of poor public services. “Many people are living where there has been no real security, no real health care, no real schools. Over time, people’s expectations get lower and lower,” MacEbong was quoted as saying. The publication cited the case of a woman in Maiduguri who said she intended to vote for Tinubu as a “thank you” for medicine she received at a government hospital. It further argued that prolonged deprivation could cause citizens to place less faith in government as an instrument for improving their circumstances. “With their home state badly governed for so long, many people are more likely to trust God and their families to improve their lives than a government that rarely has,” it stated.

The Economist also linked Tinubu’s prospects to voter turnout, particularly in areas affected by insecurity. It argued that although many voters might be disappointed with the government, they might not necessarily turn that dissatisfaction into votes against the incumbent. “As long as the security crisis remains unresolved and economic growth, which is expected to hit 4.1% this year, does not translate into concrete improvements in Nigerians’ daily lives, many voters will remain disappointed. Yet few will use the ballot box to express their disappointment,” the publication added. It cited Borno as an example, arguing that insecurity could discourage residents from travelling to polling stations. The publication noted that voter turnout in Borno was below 20 per cent in the 2023 election, compared with 27 per cent nationwide. It also suggested that regional and identity considerations could influence voting patterns elsewhere, particularly in Lagos, Tinubu’s home state. “In parts of the south, especially Mr. Tinubu’s home of Lagos, plenty may swallow whatever bad feelings they have about their day-to-day struggles and vote for their ‘son’,” it stated.

Concluding its analysis, The Economist linked Tinubu’s apparent confidence to these broader electoral dynamics, observing: “No wonder Mr. Tinubu feels safe enough to take extended holidays in Paris.”